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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, June 16, 2020

The weekly crop progress was about as expected on planting, with corn complete and soybeans at 93%. Emergence rates are also high at 95% on corn and 81% on soybeans. The corn rating slipped a little though which was not expected. The corn crop is now rated 71% Good/Excellent, down 4% from last week. The soybean crop rating was unchanged on the week at 72% G/E. The wheat crop ratings remain high, with the winter crop at 50% G/E and the spring crop at 81% G/E. As it always is at this stage of the marketing year, weather is a leading factor in price discovery. For much of the planting and growing season we have experienced mostly favorable conditions across much of the Corn Belt. The greatest concern on weather has been in the fringe areas, but even these have improved in recent weeks. We now appear to be entering a trend of a few days of heat followed by cooling temperatures and rains. These are seen as quite favorable for crop development and growth and being verified by the weekly crop ratings. While weekly ratings do not indicate a specific yield, they do indicate a trend when it comes to yields. At the present time, the combination of current weather conditions and recent ratings indicates a yield that is higher on corn and soybeans than what the USDA is projecting. This can all change however as we move through the remainder of the growing season. In recent years crop size has ultimately been determined by weather in August and September. In many years the weather in these two months has corrected early issues and given us trend or better yields. The opposite can happen as well, with late-season drought causing production loss.

 

Highlights

* China making record imports of US crude

* US/UK hopeful on trade deal by fall

* Ag economy devastated in No Dakota

* Worries over Covid resurgence grow

* US economy will not close if Covid builds

* China shutting food markets due to Covid cases rising

* US consumer looking at cheaper food products

* Forecasters predict favorable weather for growing season

* Export loadings fall short of expectations

* 51% of US corn/soy area dry over past 2 weeks

 

Corn

* Corn 95% emerged

* Corn rating -4% at 71% G/E

* Ethanol demand likely to decline

* Analysts raise Ukraine production forecast

* Ukraine corn crop similar to last year

 

Soybeans

* Soybeans 93% planted

* Crop is 72% G/E

* NOPA May crush at 169.5 mbu, under est but still a record

* High palm oil stocks weigh on soy oil

* Argentine exports on the rise

 

Wheat

* Winter wheat 50% G/E

* Winter wheat 15% harvested

* Spring wheat 81% G/E

* Black Sea 20/21 exports to hold steady

* French crop rating still declining

 

Livestock

* Beef slaughter at 95% of last year  

* Hog slaughter 90% of last year

* Very little cash trade

* Consumer demand questioned

* Seasonal decline in hog slaughter not happening

 

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