AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, June 30, 2022
The majority of today’s session will focus on the USDA quarterly stocks and revised acreage reports. Trade expecting to see lower inventory numbers than last year even with larger crops last year. Acreage numbers is where the most attention has been placed as the numbers the released in March have been disputed ever since. Most traders believe corn acres were underestimated and soybeans overestimated. Between the two reports, the stocks data may actually have more of an impact on trade. Today is also month and quarter end. Positioning for this has driven the market for the past several sessions and has been a primary source of futures pressure. The question now is if these positions will be reestablished, and more importantly, when. To see trade remain thin until we get past the July 4th holiday would not be a surprise. Trade starting to focus more on weather forecasts that will start to cover corn pollination. Right now these are mostly favorable, but that can change in a hurry. We also seeing more interest in global oilseed demand, mainly soybean crush. China reporting sinking margins as meal production is not keeping up with feed demand. Large arrivals of soybeans from South America elevating crush in that country. Ukraine halting crush as many facilities as they cannot get product moved. Logistics a global issue as well. All eyes on USDA data release for now.  

* Crop protection costs rising 
* Producers may cut back on protective uses
* China booking more Brazil corn
* Chinese meal stocks +14% in past week 
* Russian economy falters
* June 3rd driest in history 
* July to start cooler, but still dry
* Weekly export sales this morning 
* USDA reports at 11:00 AM CT
* Month end, quarter end, and FND on July contracts 

* US acres est 89.8 million
* Acreage +300,000 from March 
* June 1st stocks est 4.35 bbu 
* Est +234 mbu from last June   
* Feed demand remains questionable 
* Planted acreage est 90.6 million 
* Acreage est -400,000 from March
* June 1st stocks est 954 mbu   
* June 1st 2021 stocks were 769 mbu   
* Export demand is slowing     

* Total US acreage est 47 million 
* Acreage down 400,000 mil from March        
* June 1st stocks est 655 mbu  
* Stocks est -191 mbu from 2021  
* Russia defaulting on sales   
* June 1st US hog inventory 99% of last year    
* Market hogs -1% from 2021
* Breeding hogs -1% also   
* Average 2022 litter at 11 pigs      
* Report indicates no expansion or contraction 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.