AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Much of the weekly crop report attention has been on corn and soybeans plantings and condition ratings on all crops, but we may start to see some of this change. As of last Sunday the US winter wheat harvest was 41% complete. Typically trade shows little interest on the winter wheat harvest other than how it starts as the US wheat supply has historically been plentiful. This year we may see more interest than most for two reasons. For one the US is in need of all the wheat it can produce this year given last year’s losses in the spring crop. There are also concerns over the size of the spring crop this year as plantings have been delayed in the Upper Plains. Forecasts for the La Nina event to last may once again stress these fields, causing a loss of production. This comes when the US and world markets both need all of the wheat that can be produced. Trade is also closely monitoring the winter wheat harvest pace to see if we have elevated double cropping. It is not uncommon to see double cropping with soybeans after the winter wheat crop is harvested, and the elevated values we are seeing on soybeans may encourage more of this.  

* Ethanol values weaken 
* DDG values up $10/ton in past week
* Global processing margins pressured
* SAM basis values weaken 
* Importers not enticed by weak markets
* Most trade interest now on new crop 
* Farmers also selling new crop
* More reports of Russian grain theft
* All eyes on tomorrow’s reports 
* Tomorrow also month, quarter end 

* US turning dry ahead of pollination
* Nearly 50% of IL in drought
* Corn oil values soften 
* Very good US corn stands reported   
* US exports 81% of yearly forecast 
* Global production forecast to rise
* China finds few auction buyers
* Biodiesel -57c/gallon in past wk   
* China booking needs from SAM   
* Australia to expand canola plantings 10%    

* Russia export tax for at $146/mt 
* Russian export tax record high        
* Argentina cuts acres due to drought  
* US yields creeping higher  
* New crop protein very high   
* Quarterly hog/pig report today    
* All hog inventory est -0.8%
* Breeding hogs est -1.1%   
* Market hogs est -0.7%      
* Feeder market benefits from cheaper grains   

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