AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, June 24, 2022
Heavy losses were posted in the market yesterday as long liquidation developed. Improved weather forecasts for the United States were the leading cause of this action but positioning for the upcoming USDA reports was also a factor. Traders also shoring up positions for month and quarter end. Worries over China’s future soybean demand also weighed on trade as the country’s meal inventory has tripled in the past three months. This now starting to lead to questions on the country’s future soybean needs. Rumors of previous export sales being rolled to South America for origination also pressured yesterday’s session. Building concerns over the state of the global economy also pressured trade as the Fed now claims a recession is not inevitable but stopped short of saying we will see one. Consumers are staring to cut back on spending which is being noticed in restaurants across the US. In turn, concerns are building over future commodity demand. Weather models indicate the US will see moderating temperatures as we move to month end, but a lack of rainfall is becoming a concern. June likely to go down as the 2nd driest in history with only 1988 being drier. The International Grains Council raised its world corn production forecast yesterday from a larger crop out of Ukraine. World corn production still short of consumption. Unless buying surfaces fundamentals alone may not provide much support today.  

* Ukraine to receive temporary storage
* Black Sea countries meet on Ukraine exports   
* Russian sanctions to limit progress
* EU reporting heavy drought losses 
* Inflation impacting consumer spending
* Existing home sales -3.4% in May 
* USDA working to alleviate port congestion
* Export sales this morning, COF after the close
* Trade focused on June 30th reports
* July options expire today 

* Analysts raise Brazil crop est
* Brazil acreage higher than thought
* Safrinha crop est up 1.6 mmt
* Total Brazil production now 115 mmt 
* Managed money position trimmed
* Brazil raises harvested acres
* Crop up to 127 mmt  
* US export demand slowing   
* Indonesia to increase Palm Oil exports  
* Global crush margins decline  

* Spring wheat crop better than thought
* Winter wheat yields mixed        
* Winter crop quality is high  
* Russia continues to raise crop est  
* Canada predicts higher plantings   
* June 1st COF est 101.5%   
* May placements at 100%  
* May marketings at 103%  
* US milk production -0.7% in May     
* Global dairy price index -1.3%  

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