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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, June 07, 2022
As of Sunday night the US corn crop was 94% planted and 78% emerged, taking most concern away from the initial delays to the season. The US corn crop has an initial rating of 73% Good to Excellent, with just 4% of the crop rated as poor. These numbers call for little additional risk premium at this time. The US soybean crop is now 78% planted and 56% emerged, both very close to the five-year average. Spring wheat planting made a jump on the week and now stands at 82% complete, with emergence at 55%. On winter wheat the crop is now rated 30% Good/Excellent, another slight improvement on the week. Harvest of the winter wheat crop is at 5%. The US pasture condition is still just 28% Good/Excellent. We are now at a point in the crop report cycle where less interest will be placed on planting and more on crop condition. This will gradually build over the next several weeks. Now is also when we see private analysts use crop ratings to try and determine overall production. History has shown production is very difficult to predict using crop ratings, but we can form an overall opinion on crop potential. Given the need for large crops of both corn and soybeans this year, we will likely see more attention on weekly reports than in most years.  

Highlights
* World market needs Ukraine supplies
* Trade questions Ukraine grain quality   
* Some grain in storage may not be usable
* Old crop country movement stalled
* More selling interest on new crop 
* US to take measures for food security  
* US to invest $330 million in rail system
* Favorable margins support domestic demand 
* Data being collected for June 30th reports  
* WASDE report on Friday 

Corn
* Corn for ethanol at 3.55 bbu 
* Unplanted corn acres may be abandoned  
* Global market hopeful for Ukraine exports
* Brazil exports to build 
* Brazil futures see harvest pressure          
 
Soybeans
* Export forecast 75-100 mbu too low
* Soybeans may pick up corn acres 
* Brazil sees record meal demand
* US biofuel demand record high  
* Palm Oil reserves remain record tight    

Wheat
* Egypt shopping for coverage   
* India likely to deter more exports    
* India imports are possible          
* Australia predicts 3rd record crop
* Australian production est near 35 mmt  
  
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade softens   
* Cash cattle from $136 to $138 
* Pork values support hog futures 
* Beef exports slowing
* Pork exports remain high 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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