AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, June 06, 2022
The early portion of this week’s trade will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of the June WASDE report that will be released on Friday at 11:00 AM CT. As stated, this report typically receives little interest as we are more focused on planting and crop development in the US, but the ongoing world production issues are making every report important to trade. The fact the US already has very tight old and new crop stocks to use outlooks is adding to this interest on the reports. What may be just as important as production in this month’s report is global trade. Ukraine remains basically shut off from the global market and it will be interesting to see how the USDA accounts for this in world  balance sheets. There are others grain producing countries who can cover a portion of the Ukraine losses, but for many buyers, the cost of freight from these makes them uneconomical sources. On the domestic side trade will be waiting to see what is done with US soybean exports. Soybean sales are already above what was projected for the year and new sales have not slowed. This makes it likely the old crop sales figure will be bumped higher, but other areas of demand may be lowered to offset them. 

* Economy to impact summer travel
* Commodity demand impacted as well   
* US drought centered on Plains
* Traders removing risk premium
* China lifting Covid restrictions 
* Rains favor later crops in SAM 
* US gasoline stocks -6% from year ago
* Russia/Turkey meet Wednesday on trade 
* 2022 ethanol mandate set at 20.63 mil gal  
* WASDE report on Friday 

* July -50 ¼ last week 
* Trade expects rebound in loadings 
* Last week’s inspections -20%   
* Planting down to final acres 
* Initial crop rating expected tonight          
* July -34 ½ last week
* More time to finish plantings 
* US export loadings slowing 
* Argentine harvest winding down  
* US more favorable for summer sales    

* July -$1.17 ½ last week   
* Winter wheat harvest progressing    
* Spring acreage abandonment likely          
* EU drought cutting production
* Break has attracted more interest  
* Economic worries pressure demand   
* Only light cash trade last week 
* US pastures remain very poor 
* Livestock market looking at future supplies
* High costs may limit expansion

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.