AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, May 13, 2022
Now that we have passed the monthly WASDE report, trade will shift its attention back to the fundamental influences it has for the past several weeks. The main one of these is the US planting pace and if any further delays will take place. At the present time it appears as though a large volume of the US corn and soybean crops will be seeded by the end of next week. This will ease worries over yield drag, especially on soybeans. Attention will shift to weather at this time more than it has to see if the crops will be subjected to additional stress. We will also start to see more interest on demand, mainly if buyers are going to show up for late summer coverage as predicted. If we do not see sales start to surface soon trade may rethink its old crop demand predictions. Any developments in the outside markets will remain influential as well, especially what is taking place in the Black Sea. An underlying factor that will be watched for months to come is the US economy and ongoing concerns over inflation and its impact on commodity demand.  

* Some buyers posting quick ship incentives 
* Black Sea logistics worsen 
* China to buy pork for reserves today 
* More importers ease GMO regulations
* Importers report light coverage 
* Fertilizer costs to reduce world grain production
* Producers opting for cheaper oilseed crops
* US corn planting slowest since 1990   
* Big increase in plantings expected next Monday
* May contracts expire today  

* 2021/22 carryout 1.44 bbu
* US corn yield 177 bpa
* Crop est at 14.46 bbu
* 22/23 carryout 1.36 bbu        
* 22/23 ave cash value $6.75/bu  
* 2021/22 carryout 235 mbu   
* Yield estimated 51.5 bpa
* Crop size 4.64 bbu  
* 2022/23 carryout 310 mbu        
* Average cash value $14.40/bu      

* US 21/22 carryover 655 mbu
* 2022/23 US production 1.729 bbu       
* US 22/23 ending stocks 619 mbu
* Average cash value $10.75/bu
* Ukraine crop lowered 11.5 mmt        
* 2022 Beef production 27.84 bil pounds
* 2023 beef production 25.95 bil pounds
* 2022 Pork production 27.04 bil pounds
* 2023 pork production 27.37 bil pounds
* Total 2023 US meat production 105.34 bil pounds 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.