AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, May 12, 2022
The big story in today’s session will be the release of updated production figures for both the United States and Brazil. To start, Conab will release its official production figures on the Brazilian crops. With the soybean harvest winding down in the country this will give a much clearer indication of final crop size. Trade will also be closely watching the corn production figure to see if Conab believes drought has impacted the crop as much as private analysts have stated it has. For the United States all interest today will be on the release of the monthly WASDE report. This report is the most anticipated of the year as it gives us out first official look at new crop balance sheets. Trade has been looking forward to this release ever since last year’s harvest wound down. The main focus will likely fall on the US corn production data as not only are acres expected to be down from a year ago by a sizable amount, but trade is now starting to question the ability to reach a trend yield given recent weather conditions. Trade is expecting to see tight carryout levels on all new crop contracts which would continue to support commodity values.  

* Global food supply worries build 
* US export demand slowing 
* US dollar +6.5% from April 1st 
* Currency values impacting global trade
* Chinese crush margins improving 
* Weekly ethanol production +154,000 bbl  
* Ethanol stocks +253,000 bbl from last week
* Conab data at 7:00 AM CT  
* WASDE data at 11:00 AM CT
* Initial wheat crop assessment today  

* 2021/22 carryout est 1.41 bbu
* US corn yield est 179 bpa
* Crop est at 14.78 bbu
* 22/23 carryout est 1.3 bbu       
* World 21/22 carryout est 307.3 mmt 
* 2021/22 carryout est 227 mbu  
* Average yield est 51.5 bpa  
* Crop size est 4.63 bbu  
* 2022/23 carryout est 312 mbu        
* 21/22 global carryout est 89 mmt    

* US 21/22 carryover est 685 mbu
* 2022/23 US production est 1.79 bbu       
* Wheat crop +140 mbu from 21/22 
* US 22/23 ending stocks est 664 mbu  
* World 21/22 carryout est 278.3 mmt       
* Cash cattle holding $138 to $140 
* Wholesale beef turns mixed
* Average base hog prices firming 
* Pork cutout continues to soften
* Hog slaughter slows, cattle rise

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.