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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE data. The most interest in this release will be on the new crop balance sheets for the United States. For the most part, trade is expecting to see tight stocks to use numbers across the board for the 2022/23 marketing year. The most interest will likely fall on corn where a smaller crop is already being forecast due to the loss of acreage. Trade will also show considerable interest in the global production numbers, with an emphasis on the Black Sea and South America. For the Black Sea trade will be closely watching to see not only what production adjustments are made to balance sheets, but also for what kind of exports we may see. The same is true for South America, mainly for Brazil. Several private analysts have lowered their Brazilian Safrinha crop estimates in recent weeks, and most are below the USDA. Even with reductions the Brazilian crop will be well above last year’s and open the door for more export trade. This is what trade is most interested in.  

Highlights
* Country selling stalls
* World grain supplies rising 
* Logistic issues lead to high grain stocks
* Managed money volatility builds
* Economy impacting commodity demand
* More Covid restrictions in China 
* Consumers stockpiling food in China
* SAM basis values soften 
* May WASDE tomorrow
* Conab to also update production 

Corn
* DDG values under pressure
* Ethanol values weaken
* Sub-trend yield expected
* Large corn supply forecast       
* Trade scouting for possible replants 
 
Soybeans
* Open interest declining   
* Trade optimistic on yield potential  
* Global canola supply is down  
* US crush margins remain strong        
* Dry conditions speed Arg harvest   

Wheat
* World production questioned   
* Black Sea production to decline       
* Concerns build on US drought 
* Trade uncertain on India production  
* Russia lowers export taxes       
  
Livestock
* China lock-downs slow meat usage 
* Chinese beef imports forecast to increase
* Covid cutting Chinese dairy demand 
* Weekly cattle slaughter +3.8% from last week
* Weekly hog slaughter steady with last week 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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