AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, May 04, 2022
More positioning is starting to take place in the market for the upcoming WASDE report that will be released on the 12th. This is the most watched WASDE of the year as it contains the first official look at new crop balance sheets. We have already seen the releases of the Ag Outlook Forum data, the baseline figures, and the planting intentions data, but the May WASDE report will combine all of this data to project new crop production and balance sheets. Given the tight ending stocks that are predicted for this marketing year we are seeing more attention than usual on the new crop projection. Trade is most interested in the grains, especially corn. Corn acres are forecast to be the lowest in recent history and so far, planting has not been going perfectly. There are already thoughts the US could see new crop ending stocks at a rationing level to start. Grains and soybean ending stocks are also forecast to be low to start, but not at a level that would warrant additional buying as this time. The real question is how much more risk premium we will see in a market that is already at elevated values. 

* Eurozone inflation hits 7.5% in April
* April is the 6th month of EZ inflation 
* India looks to buy Russian oil
* Importers shifting to non-traditional coverage
* US processing margins remain favorable
* DDG values start to weaken
* US river logistics improve
* EPA to set biofuel mandates this week
* Active US planting expected this week
* WASDE report next Thursday, May 12th 

* US has 763 mbu unshipped sales 
* Low non-China business is a worry 
* Argentine values continue to rise      
* Argentine yields are increasing      
* Ukraine April exports 2x March 
* US forward sales at 393 mbu
* Forward sales +62% on the year
* China accounts for 257 mbu of sales 
* China to auction 500,000 mt on Friday     
* Importers look for cheapest veg oil possible       

* Heat is stressing India’s crop    
* Canadian wheat futures to start trading June 13th     
* EU lowers soft wheat crop 1.2 mmt  
* EU leaves export forecast at 40 mmt 
* Importers push back on high values      
* Covid restrictions cut Chinese meat demand
* China still world’s leading meat importer   
* Chinese pork demand to decline 30% this year 
* US poultry flocks continue to be culled  
* Wholesale meat values mixed

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.