AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, May 03, 2022
Very little planting progress was made last week which is not surprising given recent weather conditions. As of last Sunday 14% of the US corn crop was seeded compared to the 33% average and 42% a year ago. Corn emergence stands at 3%, just half of the average amount. The US soybean planting pace is at 8% compared to the average 13%. The US winter wheat crop rating continues to decline and now stands at 27% while the Poor/Very Poor volume increased to 43% of the crop. Spring wheat planting is also slower than average at 19%. The normal volume of spring wheat seeded at this time is 28% of the crop. A number that is starting to get more attention is the US pasture condition which is 56% Poor/Very Poor. Trade will take this week’s progress numbers and try to predict how much of the US corn crop will be seeded by the end of next week. Any corn seeded after mid-May tends to see yield loss, but the amount can vary. If the crop is planted later but experiences perfect growing conditions, it can yield better than an early seeded crop that struggles with adverse weather past that point. The same is true on soybeans but there is more time for that crop to be planted. 

* China to inject money into economy
* More damage reported to Ukraine infrastructure 
* US yearly rail grain movement -25% 
* Rail grain movement -14% from 5-year ave
* OPEC+ to continue with production increase
* China to lower import duty on coal
* Ukraine rail movement again taking place 
* Mines in Ukraine fields a major concern  
* World food values continue to rally
* Dakotas again see major planting delays

* Planting pace is 14% 
* Emergence is just 3% 
* Argentine corn basis firming      
* Argentine crop just 18% G/E     
* March ethanol demand 455 mbu
* Planting pace now at 8%
* March crush 193 mbu
* March oil production at 2.28 bil pounds
* EU to import less soy in 22/23     
* US crush margins hold above $2.00/bu      

* Winter wheat rated just 27% G/E   
* Spring wheat planting at 19%    
* Drought cuts EU production  
* Ukraine wheat planting 25% of estimate 
* US new crop demand -14% on the year      
* Chinese officials report smaller hog herd
* End of March sow inventory -3.3% from Feb  
* Total Chinese hog herd -5.9% from Feb 
* Global bird flu cases continue to rise 
* 35 million US birds culled from bird flu  

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