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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, May 02, 2022
Now that the calendar has shifted to May, we will see more attention placed on the US planting pace. This is especially on the US corn crop as history shows any crop planted after mid-May tends to see yield pressure. This does not mean corn will not be planted after the middle of the month, but trade analysts will start to reduce yield potential on those acres. The window for planting soybeans is wider with some experts claiming little yield loss happens even if the crop is seeded in early June. Given current forecast models it seems as though most of the US crop will be seeded within this time frame. Now is also when we start to see more interest on US weather models for crop development. It is not uncommon to see these conditions have more of an influence on final yields than what has taken place up to this point. We will also start to see more interest on the upcoming WASDE report that will be released on the 12th. This is one of the most closely watched USDA reports of the year as it contains our first official look at new crop balance sheets.  

Highlights
* Mines an issue for Black Sea movement 
* Russians confiscating Ukraine farm equipment 
* Most US export demand is new crop 
* US ethanol margins improve
* Trade more interested in US planting pace
* Chinese consumers hoarding food products
* Higher values encourage global production
* US trucking demand -23% from last year 
* Fertilizer values showing more volatility
* Global economic growth slowing

Corn
* July corn +24 ½ last week
* EU may suspend duties on Ukraine imports
* Analysts lower Safrinha estimates     
* Ukraine losing grain storage space    
* Daily limit increased to 50 cents 
 
Soybeans
* July soybeans -3 ¼ last week
* March crush est 192.8 mbu
* Brazil farmers increase sales 
* Brazil yearly meal exports +35.4%     
* Daily limit increased to $1.15      

Wheat
* July wheat -19 ½ last week  
* 2022/23 Australian crop est 29 mmt  
* Australian crop -7 mmt from this year 
* Limited US harvest pressure expected 
* Daily limit increased to 70 cents      
  
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade very thin
* Grains pressure feeder margins 
* Wholesale beef weakens
* YTD beef exports +1.9% 
* YTD pork exports -27%

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