AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 29, 2022
The bulk of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place for month end. The May contracts are all in delivery and this is impacting market volatility. As the impact of month end starts to recede trade will again shift its focus back to immediate fundamental factors, with the US planting pace being the primary one. Corn and soybean planting remains slow across the Corn Belt but is still not at a pace where additional risk premium is needed in futures. This will change once we move into May and the psychological factor starts to increase, especially if progress is now being seen. What will quickly become more of a factor in the market is crop development. Some fields that have been seeded across the US are not germinating as fast as hoped which elevates the possibility of replants. While this does not necessarily mean a smaller crop, it will increase the cost of production and lower returns. What is a greater concern is the ability to find needed inputs if replanting is needed. As a result, some farmers have opted to wait for better soil conditions which is further slowing the overall rate of progress. 

* Logistics an issue for US processors 
* US farmer movement stalls 
* Producers expect higher commodity values 
* Global food supply worries economists 
* Parts of US Plains driest in recent history
* Flooding a concern in Dakotas
* China extends Covid restrictions
* Planting expected to advance next week 
* More attention shown on crop development 
* FND on May contracts

* Export sales 34.1 mbu old crop, 33.2 mbu new
* Countries replacing Ukraine purchases
* 75% of Safrinha reported in drought     
* 2022/23 Argentine crop est 52 mmt    
* Daily limit to 50 cents next Monday 
* Export sales 17.7 mbu old, 21.3 mbu new
* US tops yearly sales prediction
* China to auction 500,000 mt today
* 2022/23 Argentine crop est 51 mmt    
* Daily limit to $1.15 next Monday     

* Weekly sales 1.2 mbu old, 4.6 mbu new  
* Canadian exports -42% on the year  
* French wheat remains 90% G/E 
* China ends wheat auctions for the year 
* Daily limit to 70 cents next Monday     
* Beef sales 11,400 mt
* Pork sales 31,500 mt 
* Wholesale beef weakens
* Pork cut outs under pressure
* Hog slaughter pace improves

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.