AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, March 31, 2022
The long awaited quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports will finally be released today at 11:00 AM CT. For acres trade is expecting 92 million on corn, 88.9 million on soybeans, and 47.9 million for wheat. These compare to the Ag Outlook Forum estimates for 92 million acres of corn, 88 million acres of soybeans, and 48 million acres of wheat. Quarterly stocks are forecast at 1.04 billion bu of wheat, 7.86 billion bu of corn, and 1.89 billion bu of soybeans. From last year these are declines of 21% for wheat and increases of 21% on soybeans and 2.2% more corn. Not only will this data be released today, but so will the weekly export numbers. Trade continues to look for signs of elevated demand following the Black Sea conflict, but so far, export sales have been lighter than hoped for. If we continue to see lethargic demand, there is a high probability that additional liquidation of long positions will take place. We may also see elevated trade activity today as it is both month and quarter end in the markets. While much of the positioning for this has been done, we always tend to see a few stragglers on the final day.  

* Brazil basis values weaker
* Brazil exports likely larger than projected 
* Argentine crop ratings improve
* Ukraine making rail exports
* US oil rig count rising 
* More countries consider biofuel blend adjustments
* Weekly ethanol production -42,000 barrels 
* Weekly ethanol reserves +318,000 barrels
* Month/Quarter end today
* Stocks/Acreage reports at 11:00 AM CT

* US acreage est 92 million
* Trade est equal to Ag Forum   
* Quarterly stocks est 7.86 bbu  
* Stocks est +2.2% on the year  
* Corn up 11 of past 15 years on report data  
* Trade acreage est 88.9 million
* Outlook forum est 88 million 
* Quarterly stocks est 1.89 bbu   
* Stocks est +21% on the year      
* Soy up 9 of past 15 years on report data     

* Total US acreage est 47.9 million  
* Forum acreage est 48 million       
* Quarterly stocks est 1.04 bbu       
* Stocks est -21% on the year       
* Wheat up 7 of past 15 March reports          
* YTD US beef production equal to 2021   
* YTD US pork production -7%      
* Total red meat production -3.5%  
* US hog inventory -2.2% at 72.2 million
* Market/Breeding hogs both -2%   
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