AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, January 18, 2022
Demand for US corn, soybeans, and wheat has been less than hoped for in recent months. This is especially the case for the grains where the United States continues to see elevated competition from other suppliers in the global market, mainly Ukraine, Australia, and even South America. The most surprising of these is South America as trade had expected those countries to be out of exportable inventory long ago. The fact these countries are still exporting means last year’s crops may have been underestimated, especially in Brazil. Ukraine is also exporting a record corn crop and taking a large portion of the Asian business the United States typically sees. The most concern up to now has been on wheat where Australia, the Black Sea, and Argentina are supplying the world with much of its current needs. The question now is when the United States will see buyers return. Many analysts are expecting these other grain sources to be out of product by early summer and the United States will see elevated demand at that time. This is especially if the South American corn crop starts to deteriorate more than it already has.  

* US barge draft issues continue
* Transit issues impact exports 
* Low water again impacting SAM river movement  
* Argentine barge capacity cut by 30% 
* Weather likely to lead to additional food inflation 
* SAM harvest to advance this week 
* Not all analysts lower SAM crops     
* Consumer confidence a market concern
* Gasoline values top ethanol 
* Global processing margins start to slip

* Last week corn was down 10 ½ cents
* Average Brazil yield est 86 bpa
* China lowers corn use forecast 
* Feed biggest decline in Chinese demand 
* Record low stocks/use forecast in Argentina
* Soybeans -40 ½ last week
* NOPA crush today est 185 mbu 
* EU imports jump considerably   
* Argentina still exporting old crop products  
* Chinese imports drop 

* Wheat down 17 cents last week
* EU crop estimate rising            
* Buyers now taking Australian milling offers
* US exports remain sluggish
* World wheat supplies tight but adequate
* US beef exports +9% in 2021
* Us pork exports -8% in 2021
* Wholesale beef is firming 
* Slaughter remains slow
* Cattle on feed this Friday
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.