AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, January 13, 2022
Yesterday’s USDA data will likely continue to be a market factor in today’s session as well. On the domestic side very few changes were made to balance sheets. Trade was more interested in the global numbers as reductions were made to Brazilian crops of 5 million metric tons on soybeans and 3 million metric tons on corn. Now that we are past this trade will monitor actual South American yields for price discovery along with ongoing weather developments. Not only will weather be a factor for the South American crops, but we are seeing more interest on North American patterns as well. Much of the Western US is still abnormally dry at this time and this extends into Canada. This is already starting to be monitored in the wheat complex but will start to be a factor in row crops as well if conditions do not change. We will also start to see more interest on the US export pace now that the South American harvest is underway as many of the US’s buyers will shift their loading sources, mainly China. If our export demand drops as much as some analysts believe it might we will likely start to see alterations to yearly exports in future balance sheets releases.  

* Chinese Covid cases continue to spike
* Covid may restrict Lunar New Year food demand
* Trade also questioning demand for upcoming Olympics 
* US DDGs continue to rally
* DDGs up $15/mt in past week
* Global processing margins declining 
* US export line-up is thin     
* Black Sea cost of production +30% this year
* US ethanol production drops last week
* US ethanol reserves jump 1.5 million barrels

* US yield at 177 bpa
* US crop size 15.11 bbu
* US carryout 1.54 bbu 
* World carryout 303.1 mmt 
* Dec 1st stocks 11.65 bbu
* US yield 51.4 bpa
* US crop 4.435 bbu
* US carryout 350 mbu   
* World carryout 95.2 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks 3.15 bbu

* Winter wheat acres 34.4 million            
* US carryout 628 mbu
* World carryout 280 mmt   
* Dec 1st stocks 1.39 bbu
* China to auction reserves today
* 2022 beef production at 27.17 billion pounds
* Average steer value at $136.75/cwt
* 2022 pork production at 27.52 billion pounds 
* Average hog value at $60.25/cwt
* USDA cuts 2022 pork exports 405 million pounds

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