AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Now that harvest is winding down more interest is being placed on next year’s prospective acreage. Firms are predicting smaller acreage on corn and larger acreage on soybeans this year with some predicting the highest total plantings in recent years. This comes from the high values we continue to see on these two crops, even with the recent set-back in futures. Of course there are many variables that will impact actual plantings between now and next spring, with weather and input costs being two of the primary ones. Input costs and availability remain two of the most followed factors in the market with both concerning for farmers going into next spring. Not only are analysts trying to predict corn and soybean acres in the United States, but total acreage. While returns for corn and soybeans are expected to be favorable this coming year, returns for other crops are just as high. Two getting the most attention are wheat and cotton where record returns are being seen. This has analysts predicting total US acres of 240 million for this coming year, the highest level of plantings of all crops for the United States since 2014. 

* US acres likely underestimated 
* US corn/soy ratio historically tight
* Ratio at 2.1:1 favors corn production
* China to lower DDG import tariffs Jan 1 
* Market closely monitoring interest rate talk 
* Northern US Plains still in drought
* Fertilizer values hold at all-time highs
* Futures may need production loss for more gains
* Yearly export loadings all below last year
* Importers push back on high costs  

* WCB 11 cents better than ECB   
* Futures pushing for new crop acres
* High taxes limit Russian exports
* China passes on US offers
* Ukraine exports limit US sales 
* Basis 20-30 cents better than last year
* Average US basis -40 cents
* Brazil soy oil cheapest in world market
* Buyers surface on market breaks
* Little stress noted on SAM crop

* Milling quality stocks low
* More wheat to be used as feed 
* Russian export limits to take effect in Jan  
* Current Russian exports lowest in 4 years 
* 1/3 of Ukraine wheat area is dry  
* Cash cattle trade is thin
* Last week’s sales highest value in 4 years
* Cattle slaughter ramping up
* Brazil packers passing high costs to consumers 
* US to speed up hog processing   

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