AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Trade continues to focus heavily on demand for price discovery, and recently this has been less than hoped for. Yearly export shipments continue to lag last year by a considerable volume. Sales are mixed with corn just above last year’s sales while sales of soybeans and wheat are well below last year. The USDA is predicting a decline in exports of all three commodities, but the recent pace is indicating even the reduced volumes may be too high. While there is a considerable amount of the marketing year left, the United States currently has little competition for sales. This will  change in the very near future as the South American soybean harvest will soon be underway. It is quite likely Brazil will have soybeans available for the world market as early as late December this year. As a result, we have already had many of our traditional buyers book soybeans from Brazil at that time. The most concerning of these is China, as they are the US’s leading soybean buyer. Without their business it will be difficult to reach the current export target on soybeans, especially if the US market appreciates in value. The United States may see more demand for its grains, but even there demand needs to pick up soon. 

* World farmers scale back on input usage
* Global feed costs rise
* US has no room for yield loss
* Chinese import demand questionable
* Weather in SAM remains favorable
* US farm sales very light
* US ethanol production continues to increase
* Buyers sourcing needs from SAM  
* Ukraine grain exports +18% from last year
* Basis values remain historically firm

* Harvest pace at 74%  
* Analysts raising US export forecast  
* Canada exported to make record imports  
* Brazil Oct exports just under year ago
* More reports of free DP for deliveries
* Harvest at 79%
* Carryout expected to increase
* Brazil Oct exports over last year 
* Biodiesel demand to limit oil exports
* SAM sales ramping up 

* Winter wheat planting at 87% 
* Emergence at 67% 
* Crop is rated 45% G/E 
* World milling supply is record low
* Russian export tax a record $70/mt

* US cattle slaughter picking up 
* US hog slaughter slows
* High feed costs impact placements
* Wholesale beef under pressure
* Pork cut outs soften

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