AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, October 13, 2021
There were a few surprises in yesterday’s WASDE report that will undoubtedly impact trade for the near future. One of these was a historically large increase to the US soybean yield. This verifies the big numbers we have been hearing from across the Corn Belt. The slight increase to corn yield was also a bit of a surprise. There are now thoughts these yields could increase even more as harvest advances, especially with ongoing reports of better than expected yields, even in the worst production areas of the United States. One numbers from the demand side that was surprising was a 10 million bu increase to corn exports. While corn sales are above last year, we have seen them consistently decline for the past several weeks. It is also a bit surprising soybean exports were left unchanged given the lack of demand we have seen and ongoing competition from South America. Now that the monthly supply and demand numbers have been released trade will quickly return its attention to harvest activity and yield reports. When harvest first started many analysts were predicting a lower corn production figure given initial yields. Corn quality is also not as much of a topic as harvest progresses. This is not surprising as we move into the prime production regions of the Corn Belt.  

* US yields remain better than expected
* US gasoline values at 7 year high
* Ethanol exports support US ethanol 
* Chinese processor margins improve
* US margins also firming
* Russia to limit fertilizer exports
* Global food inflation a major concern
* World vegetable oils +60% in past year
* Buyers pass on high US cotton offers
* Logistics continue to impact US exports

* US yield at 176.5 bpa
* Crop size at 15.02 bbu
* Average cash value unchanged at $5.45  
* 21/22 carryout 1.5 bbu
* Global stocks 301.7 mmt, +4.1 mmt

* Yield projected at 51.5 bpa
* Crop size now at 4.45 bbu
* Average US cash forecast -55c at $12.35
* 21/22 carryout 320 mbu
* Global ending stocks 104.6 mmt; +5.7 mmt

* US production at 1.65 bbu
* US carryout 580 mbu
* World carryout 277.2 mmt, -6 mmt
* Average cash value estimated at $6.70, +10c
* Rains benefit Southern US Plains

* 2021 beef production est 27.83 billion pounds
* 2022 beef production est 27 billion pounds
* 2021 pork production est 27.67 billion pounds
* 2022 pork production est 27.59 billion pounds
* Average values of $128.75 on steers, $60.50 on hogs

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