AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Now that the monthly WASDE report is well behind us trade attention will refocus on the data that will be released at month end. This is the quarterly stocks figures that will be released on September 30th. For the most part trade is expecting to see tighter reserves of corn, soybeans, and wheat from September 2020. These numbers may set the market tone for the remainder of the calendar year. While these numbers will be important, they will share the spotlight with the advancing US harvest. Fieldwork is starting to advance and may do so quickly as crop moisture levels are quickly dropping this year, especially on corn. We are also seeing premiums paid for quick-ship corn which is increasing the interest in an early start to harvest. While this is offering temporary cash market support, basis values on a whole remain defensive. This is an ongoing reaction to the stalled exports out of the US Gulf and how it is causing inventory to back up into the interior market. The question in the cash market now is how long it may take export channels to get back to normal flows and how much business may be lost until it does. 

* Rains hamper repairs in Gulf
* More terminals to open by end of week
* Light frost damage reported in Australia
* US looks to improve trade relations with China
* Ukraine new crop exports +13% on the year
* Brazil groups predict lower exports
* State of global economy remains market concern
* Feeders continue to source corn alternatives
* Rains slow to develop in Brazil
* Interior basis showing more volatility 

* Ethanol margins to improve demand
* French corn 90% G/E
* Argentina to expand corn plantings
* Outstanding sales +30% from last year
* US predicts higher Chinese corn imports
* New crop sales -30% from last year
* US seeing lower product demand
* Chinese imports under US projection
* NOPA crush today est 154.2 mbu   
* Stocks to use remains tight

* Rains favor winter planting
* Buyers temporarily suspend import tariffs
* US sales trail last year by 23%
* Lower feed demand expected
* Global wheat values stabilize
* US pork production -13% from last year
* Lower production impacts exports
* Domestic US pork consumption -14% 
* Retail pork values +10% from 2020
* Beef demand remains strong

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