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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Now that the monthly WASDE report is well behind us trade attention will refocus on the data that will be released at month end. This is the quarterly stocks figures that will be released on September 30th. For the most part trade is expecting to see tighter reserves of corn, soybeans, and wheat from September 2020. These numbers may set the market tone for the remainder of the calendar year. While these numbers will be important, they will share the spotlight with the advancing US harvest. Fieldwork is starting to advance and may do so quickly as crop moisture levels are quickly dropping this year, especially on corn. We are also seeing premiums paid for quick-ship corn which is increasing the interest in an early start to harvest. While this is offering temporary cash market support, basis values on a whole remain defensive. This is an ongoing reaction to the stalled exports out of the US Gulf and how it is causing inventory to back up into the interior market. The question in the cash market now is how long it may take export channels to get back to normal flows and how much business may be lost until it does. 

Highlights
* Rains hamper repairs in Gulf
* More terminals to open by end of week
* Light frost damage reported in Australia
* US looks to improve trade relations with China
* Ukraine new crop exports +13% on the year
* Brazil groups predict lower exports
* State of global economy remains market concern
* Feeders continue to source corn alternatives
* Rains slow to develop in Brazil
* Interior basis showing more volatility 

Corn
* Ethanol margins to improve demand
* French corn 90% G/E
* Argentina to expand corn plantings
* Outstanding sales +30% from last year
* US predicts higher Chinese corn imports
 
Soybeans
* New crop sales -30% from last year
* US seeing lower product demand
* Chinese imports under US projection
* NOPA crush today est 154.2 mbu   
* Stocks to use remains tight

Wheat
* Rains favor winter planting
* Buyers temporarily suspend import tariffs
* US sales trail last year by 23%
* Lower feed demand expected
* Global wheat values stabilize
 
Livestock
* US pork production -13% from last year
* Lower production impacts exports
* Domestic US pork consumption -14% 
* Retail pork values +10% from 2020
* Beef demand remains strong

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.
 

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