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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Weather remains the primary driving factor in price discovery at the present time. Corn is still pollinating across much of the United States and ears are being set and starting to fill. As this takes place some agronomists claim yield can be greatly impacted. The same is true on soybeans where pod setting and filling is starting to take place. The regions being watched the most are the Upper Plains and Western Corn Belt where rains have been less regular and drought is more of a factor. Not only is drought impacting the US in this region, but the drought is also affecting Canada, with some reports indicating losses have been even greater. Not only has the Canadian wheat crop been affected by drought but so has the canola crop. This is actually more of a factor for the global oilseed market as a large share of the world’s canola supply comes from Canada. A smaller crop will only increase demand for soybeans and other oilseeds. This loss in Canada was tempered yesterday by news Argentina will be lowering its biodiesel blend rate. Thoughts are this will free up more soy oil for the global market. Trade is also again monitoring the spread of Covid cases and what impact they may have on commodity demand.  

Highlights
* Basis values continue to rally in SAM
* Argentina lowers shipping drafts again
* August expected to be warmer than normal
* Crop ratings forecast to decline
* Current ratings indicate 40% loss in spring wheat yield
* Domestic buyers waiting for new crop supplies
* US market following world markets
* Debate continues on E-15 use
* Ethanol production forecast to increase in weekly report
* Ethanol stocks expected to decline

Corn
* Global importers lower tax rates
* Buyers export post-pollination sales
* New crop exports to increase
* Forward contracted sales +11 mmt year ago
* Yearly corn shipments +65% 
 
Soybeans
* Exporters looking for Chinese return
* Argentina may increase soy oil sales
* US has very few unshipped sales
* Trade doubts yield estimates
* Export loadings +51% on the year

Wheat
* US wheat sales rising
* Early loading pace -22% from last year
* Damage reported from heavy US rains
* Ukraine reporting high quality crop
* Chinese wheat imports +60% on the year
 
Livestock
* US beef exports may be underestimated
* US cattle slaughter totals 18 million head
* YTD cattle slaughter +800,000 head from last year 
* US hog slaughter at 69.3 million head
* YTD hog slaughter -152,000 head from last year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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