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AgriVisor Market Watch

 
Monday, June 21, 2021

Weaker markets to start the week as weekend rainfall out performs trade expectations. Large portions of the of the upper Midwest and Northern Plains received much needed rainfall with additional rainfall expected this week. More will be needed to relieve severe drought stress scattered across western and northern crop areas. This week we will continue to navigate through a weather dominated market and we will look for confirmation on last weeks rumors of Chinese business. The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report later this afternoon as another sharp reduction is expected after last weeks blistering temps and scarce rainfall blanketed much the Midwest. Top end yields are likely a thing of the past as we head into the last full week of June.

Highlights

* Markets on the defensive after weekend rains

* Weather to control markets this week

* Single inch of rain likely won’t reverse drought conditions

* Equity markets find their footing and look to recover last week’s losses

* Last week was the Dow Jones worst since October 2020

* Weaker dollar helped limit morning’s losses

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak to the House on Tuesday

* Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres to be report June 30th

* Crop damage continues to be reported as acres expected in the millions

* China to provide increased insurance to help stabilize income

 

Corn

* Over and inch of rain fell across Upper Midwest

* Losses to be limited by steady export pace

* Price volatility will continue to be an unknown

* Crop ratings expected to fall another 2-4%

* Cooler/wetter forecast for the week ahead

 

Soybeans

* Lower prices look to trigger stronger demand

* China purchased 8 cargos new crop U.S. soy

* YTD shipping volumes from Brazil to China nearly 29% lower than LY

* Uncertainty about Chinese 21/22 export demand looms

* Soy futures at the mercy of soy oil and weather forecasts

 

Wheat

* Pressure from corn and soybeans contributing to todays weakness

* Current moisture totals for spring wheat growing areas ranks lowest

* Wheat prices will be largely driven by action in corn

* Little support found from dry spring in Northern Plains

* Hot temps in Black Sea and Baltic, no issues thus far

 

Livestock

* Lawmakers ready to deep dive into cattle markets

* Senate Ag Committee to hold hearing on Thursday

* Chinese farmers were asked to reduce number of low producing sows

* Cattle markets broke through 10-week range last week

* Big test for cattle market in the week ahead

 

 

 

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