AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, May 28, 2021
It would not come as a surprise to see elevated trader positioning during today’s session. The markets are closed next Monday in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. Historically it is not uncommon to see weather pattern shifts over the weekend and the added day without being able to change positions makes it more likely we will see squaring today. Weather on a whole will start to become more of a factor in daily price discovery as we transition from the planting season to the growing season. Up to this point dry topsoil conditions have not been a major concern as they allowed for active planting to take place. Now that crops are seeded, we need to start seeing regular rainfall to prevent a loss of production. Current rainfall has been sporadic across the Corn Belt, with several areas receiving decent coverage while others are in desperate need of precipitation. While subsoil moisture is adequate the longer we see limited rainfall the more likely these will start to be depleted as well. Given tight new crop ending stocks estimates we will see more attention on weather outlooks all growing season, along with a likely higher volume of risk premium. 

* Cold temps in parts of Corn Belt this weekend
* No major crop damage expected
* USDA predicts $7 billion more Ag exports in 2021
* Market losing concerns with tight balance sheets
* US acreage likely higher than March estimates
* US dollar at key support
* Chinese stocks market rallies
* Grounded barges towed out of Argentina
* Initial corn crop rating next Tuesday
* Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day 

* Rains have benefited Brazil crop
* Initial crop rating likely better than average
* Weather favorable for early growth
* Black Sea market weakens
* US ethanol margins continue to firm
* Brazil exporting nearly 850,000 mt per day
* Brazil exports +19.5% from last year
* US loadings need to average 15 mbu/week
* Argentine product getting to ports
* Argentine crush +15% from year ago

* Australian crop estimates rising
* EU soft wheat exports -9 mmt from year ago
* US weather improves
* Excess rains causing some quality concerns
* Global wheat market weakens
* US pork supply lowest since 2004
* US beef supply also shrinks
* Hog weights in China 2x average
* Weekly beef sales at 27,900 mt
* Weekly pork sales at 45,900 mt  

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