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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
As expected, a large amount of planting took place across the United States last week. The US corn crop is now 46% planted, 10 points ahead of average. This is the most planting for one week since May 2015. The crop is only 8% emerged though, which is 1 point behind normal. The soybean crop is 24% seeded which is well over the normal 11%. Given current weather forecasts a large amount of planting should take place this week as well. Unless major delays develop in the near future, trade will pay much less attention to the planting pace across the United States. We will now see interest shift to crop development and condition. Rains have fallen across much of the Corn Belt recently, but more will be needed to prevent soil moisture from becoming more deficient. The crops need heat units though, especially in the Eastern Belt and fringe areas. This is especially the case with the low emergence rate. A large portion of the Corn Belt is still in a mild drought, and while this is favorable for active planting, it is negative for crop development. This is already supporting our futures and will continue to do so until drought is fully corrected. 

Highlights
* Product values support soy complex
* Same development taking place in corn products
* DDGs providing more margin than ethanol 
* Rains delay Argentina harvest
* Brazil remains dry
* US ethanol reserves near 4-year low
* Ethanol values at 7-year high
* CME raises margins to ease volatility
* China may be cancelling SAM bookings
* More reports of US imports into East Coast

Corn
* Crop is 46% planted, 36% is average
* Emergence is 8%, 9% is normal
* Higher yearly sales expected
* China shopping for new crop coverage
* South Korea shopping for Optional origin corn
 
Soybeans
* Crop is 24% planted
* March soy crush is 188.2 mbu
* China needs more coverage
* Chinese crush margins firm
* US crush margins softer 
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 48% G/E 
* Spring wheat 49% planted
* Spring wheat 14% emerged
* Global wheat conditions are favorable
* Rains forecast for US Wheat Belt 
 
Livestock
* Packers not pushing for coverage
* Higher weights favor packers
* Global meat demand remains high
* ASF continues to spread in China 
* Retail values remain high
 
RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 

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