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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, April 30, 2021
Trade is still debating the size of South American crops. Over the past week we have seen increases to the Brazilian soybean yields as late season rains proved to be beneficial for the crop. There are now more thoughts that Brazil’s yearly soybean production will reach the 136 million metric tons being projected by several firms. The uncertainty in Brazil is on the Safrinha crop with some firms putting it no larger than 93 million metric tons. This is well below the 109 million metric tons being projected by the USDA among others. If Brazil’s corn production is in fact this low we are likely to see not only minimal export competition, but an increased possibility of Brazilian corn imports. The same uncertainty is taking place in Argentina. Several firms have reduced their soybean crop estimates in Argentina, cutting them from 2 to 2.5 million metric tons and putting the crop near 45 million metric tons. We have also seen reduction to the Argentine corn crop, but it is still holding closer to the 46 to 47 million metric ton range. We are already starting to see projections for next year’s crops in South America with considerable increase in both countries from a return to favorable growing conditions and expanded plantings. Much of today’s session will be spent in month end positioning. 

Highlights
* US becoming overbought in global market
* Weather slowing grain planting in Ukraine
* Country movement remains minimal
* More interest on selling new crop
* Brazil to remain warm/dry for Safrinha pollination
* New crop price ratio at 2.45:1
* US GDP +6.4% in 1st quarter
* Consumer spending +10.7% in 1st quarter
* US gasoline demand down 4% from last year
* Big jump in planting expected next week

Corn
* Brazil rating 30 points under last year
* US has up to 550 mbu unshipped sales to China
* 90% of Safrinha crop short on moisture
* Continue to hear rumors of Brazil imports
* Corn futures up 37% this year
 
Soybeans
* Brazil basis values starting to firm
* Brazil soybeans still under US
* US has very few unshipped sales to China
* Soy oil remains supportive
* Soybeans taking acres from wheat 
 
Wheat
* Russian exports to increase 15%
* Winterkill in Russia minimal
* EU exports -8 mmt from last year
* Wheat futures +16% this year
* Us ratings expected to improve 
 
Livestock
* Chinese hog feeders see huge financial loss
* Cash markets remain firm
* Weekly beef sales at 23,600 mt
* Weekly pork sales at 35,600 mt
* China purchases very light

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