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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Weather remains a key factor in price discovery, even though global conditions have turned more favorable in recent weeks. The most improvement has been in South America where rains have developed in some of the driest regions. While this will not correct damage that has already been done, it may prevent crops from deteriorating any further. The most benefit may be to double crops, mainly the Safrinha crop in Brazil. It is not out of the question that these improvements could lead to elevated plantings of Brazil’s third corn crop, especially if there are concerns over the country’s ability to satisfy domestic demand.  Weather is also becoming more of a factor in the United States. As planting progresses across the United States we have seen an improvement of soil conditions, primarily on the Southern Plains and Central Corn Belt. The question now is if these conditions will last, or this is just a temporary reprieve from the drought. Given the rapid deterioration of the La Nina pattern, it would appear as though we are in for an overall shift in weather patterns to more favorable conditions. This does not mean weather is no longer a factor though, as the United States cannot afford to lose any production this year. 

Highlights
* Global food prices up 10% in March
* World food values up 10 straight months
* Soybean harvest in late stages in Brazil
* Safrinha planting now done
* Infrastructure needs more improvements in Brazil
* Global economy expected to remain strong into 2023
* US ethanol production rises, stocks decline
* Index fund roll begins today
* Trade expects more US acres than USDA
* WASDE report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT  

Corn
* Safrinha yield estimate lowered 3.6%
* Ukraine exports -25% from last year
* US Feb exports a record 248.4 mbu
* New crop demand less than expected
* US has just 32 mbu in new crop sales
 
Soybeans
* Feb exports 167.5 mbu
* This was a five year high for the month
* New crop demand building
* New crop sales total 183.5 mbu
* Conflicting reports on Chinese demand 
 
Wheat
* Export inspections just over last year
* Egypt buying expected to slow
* Global crop ratings remain high 
* Technicals weigh on futures
* China continues to use more wheat as feed
 
Livestock
* Lean hog index highest since Oct 2014
* Chinese demand continues to build
* Carry builds in cattle
* Wholesale beef supports futures
* Grilling demand is rising

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