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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, March 03, 2021
There has been a considerable amount of talk in the market recently on projected US acres, but not very much on yield. In the USDA baseline report average US yields were projected at 180.5 bushels per acre on corn and 50.9 bushels per acre on soybeans. While these would both be higher than what was harvested last year, they may not be enough to satisfy demand. Even with the projected planted acres of 92 million on corn and 90 million on soybeans we may fall short of our expected demand. This is from where the anticipated increase in acres is going to originate from. Many of these additional acres will likely be found in the fringe areas of the Corn Belt which is not known for high yield potential. Acres are also expected to come from the Conservation Reserve Program, which tend to be lower producing and why they were in the program to begin with. The unknown in this is how many prevent plant acres will find their way back into rotation this year. Many of these have high yield potential. The fact remains the United States will need high acres, high yields, and near perfect growing conditions this coming year to satisfy projected demand. 

Highlights
* China to plant more corn, less soybeans
* Frost damage reported in Ukraine
* OPEC to consider production changes this week
* Covid vaccines show more promise
* More states drop all restrictions
* Nitrogen fertilizer values spike higher
* Domestic commodity demand remains high
* Kansas topsoil reported at 42% short
* 19 mmt vessel capacity waiting in Brazil
* Fresh news somewhat sparse

Corn
* Argentine crop condition improves
* Total crop loss in Argentina trimmed to 2 mmt
* Global corn basis weakens
* Average US basis 12 cents firmer than last year
* Brazil Safrinha planting nears 40%
 
Soybeans
* Global crush margins remain firm
* US crush +4.1% from last year
* Average US basis 4 cents better than year ago
* Argentine govt predicts 46 mmt crop
* Brazil harvest nears 25%
 
Wheat
* Black Sea production estimates rising
* World production in 21/22 est record 790 mmt
* Global production outpacing demand
* Export loadings slip lower
* Chinese auction values at $10.00/bu rising 
 
Livestock
* Packer bids on cattle remain low
* Global demand a worry 
* US exports expected to recover
* US slaughter numbers rebound
* China sees mutated cases of ASF

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