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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, February 11, 2021
Now that the February WASDE report is behind us, trade will start to look forward to the next big influences of fundamental information. One of these will be the Ag Outlook Forum that will be held in Washington next week. This gives our first look at what the government is looking for new crop balance sheets. In many years this is a continuation of the data that was released in the baseline report. All eyes on this will be focused on the soy complex to see if ongoing demand is expected and if a rebuilding of reserves is possible. Trade will also start to focus on the March planting intentions and quarterly stocks data that will be released on March 31st. The USDA will release acreage in the Outlook Forum, but the March 31st report carries more weight with the market. Trade will immediately take these numbers are start plugging in yields to see what the probability of building our commodity reserves is. Trade will also use the quarterly stocks numbers to see if any rationing has been seen, and if more is needed. It is no surprise that the most attention in these reports will fall on the soy complex.  

Highlights
* More economists show concern with inflation
* US ethanol export demand builds last week 
* Ethanol stocks down sharply
* Ag Outlook Forum one week from today
* US farmers opting for early maturing crops
* China to crack down on illegal GMO crops
* Farmers shift marketing interest to new crop
* All transit strikes in Argentina have ended
* Chinese Lunar New Year starts tomorrow
* Holiday will last through Feb 26th  

Corn
* Argentina pushing sales ahead of tax changes
* Questions arise over double cropping in Brazil
* CONAB raises corn production estimate 3.2 mmt
* CONAB crop estimate now 105.3 mmt
* US sales cancelled
 
Soybeans
* CONAB makes slight increase to Brazil crop
* CONAB pegs production at 133.8 mmt
* Brazil imports close to working into US 
* US meal sales shift to Argentina
* Argentine taxes may limit long-term exports
 
Wheat
* Mexico shows more interest in US offers
* Yearly loadings slip behind last year
* Demand slowing on US offers as well
* More Russian taxes on June 2nd 
* Winterkill a concern in US 
 
Livestock
* US beef exports for 2020 a 3-year low
* Canada buying US beef
* US cattle movement is light
* US pork exports +13% on the year 
* Slaughter numbers remain low

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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