AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, January 13, 2021
There is little doubt yesterday’s WASDE numbers will again be a factor in today’s session. This is especially the case in the corn complex where we will have expanded trading limits today due to yesterday’s limit gains. Now that all of the January data has been released trade will revert to monitoring more immediate market influences. The primary one of these is the need for rationing of soybeans. The South American harvest is gaining momentum, but we have yet to see much for selling out of those countries and may not for several weeks. Now that we have the updated US soybean stocks and carryout information trade will combine all of this data to try and better pin down ending stocks estimates. Trade will also start to show more interest on US weather forecasts as long-range models will start to include the start of the spring planting season. Current forecasts indicate dry conditions may impact the United States as much as they are in South America. As a result, we may now start to see more attention on the new crop contracts as we have in the nearby months. We will also closely monitor the South American harvest to see if the shift we are seeing to more rainfall will benefit crops. 

* Rationing now seen in all commodities
* Concerns rise over processing margin losses
* Average cash values now $4.20 on corn, $11.15 on soy
* Argentine corn 12% G/E, Soybeans 27% G/E
* Last year corn was 55%, soybeans 54%
* Brazil harvest slow to advance
* China ups its corn/soybean import forecast
* Rising Covid cases remains a worry
* CONAB pegs Brazil soy crop at 133.7 mmt
* CONAB puts corn crop at 102.3 mmt 

* US yield est 172 bpa 
* Crop size 14.18 bbu
* Ending stocks projected at 1.5 bbu
* Global carryout at 283.8 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks at 11.3 bbu
* US yield 50.2 bpa
* Crop size 4.14 bbu
* Ending stocks 140 mbu
* Global carryout at 84.3 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks at 2.93 bbu
* US ending stocks 836 mbu
* Global stocks at 313.2 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks at 1.65 bbu
* Winter wheat acres 32 million
* Russian export taxes may rise
* 2020 US beef production at 27.16 billion pounds
* 2021 beef production est 27.19 bil pounds, -70 million
* 2020 pork production 28.3 bil pounds 
* 2021 pork production est 28.6 bil pounds, +55 million
* Higher feed costs to affect production

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.