AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 30, 2020
Final month end positioning will dominate today’s trade. We may see more than the usual amount of this for two reasons. For one, the November soybean contract is in delivery and contract rolling has been taking place. Another reason for a likely elevation to fund positioning today is next week’s Presidential election in the US. Many traders may shore up positions today and wait until election results are known before reestablishing them. There is a significant amount of unknown that always enters a market ahead of this event, mainly on what changes we may see to global trade relations if we see a change in administrations. This can impact a market long after the election and into the new year. Not only can an election impact the commodity market but the financials as well. Once trade returns next week we will see this along with new month balancing drive the market. We will also continue to see trade monitor South America to see if Brazil can get its soybean crop planted in a timely manner as the window is starting to close for a timely crop. Updated economic reactions to the rise in Covid 19 cases around the world will also be a key factor in today’s trade. 

* Minimal damage from Hurricane Zeta
* Covid rapidly spreading through Europe
* Trade monitoring harvest delays in Upper Plains
* Record values encourage plantings in SAM 
* IGC lowers world grain supply estimates
* Investors pulling out of mkts ahead of election
* Trade starting to position for Nov WASDE
* First Notice Day on Nov contracts
* Daylight savings ends this weekend

* Harvest near 90% by Monday
* Brazil 1st crop is 55% planted
* Brazil planting 9% behind normal
* Mexico remains top destination for US corn
* IGC lowers world production 4 mmt
* Harvest near complete by Monday
* US loadings a record 527 mbu
* 80% of US loadings to china
* Soy product demand supports entire complex
* No interest in farmer selling
* Japan top destination for US wheat
* US loadings +4% from year ago
* US loading pace has slowed
* Winter wheat rating expected to improve next week
* Global crop benefits from rains
* Weekly beef sales 18,900 mt
* Beef sales -13% from previous week
* Weekly pork sales +9% at 29,000 mt
* 2021 sales at 4,600 mt beef, 29,000 mmt pork
* Germany ASF cases continue to rise

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.