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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
As expected, a fair amount of harvest took place in the US last week. Corn harvest is now 8% complete and soybean harvest is 6% harvested. This is as expected on soybeans but a slightly lower than estimated corn figure. As harvest picks up across the US, so do crop reports. So far, the most attention is on corn. Attention is not just on yield, but crop quality as well. It appears as though the quality of this year’s corn is already coming in on the low side for test weight. Early indications are pointing to a yield that would fall short of the current USDA estimate. While early, if the current conditions persist it appears as though the average corn yield this year may be at 177 bushels per acre. If everything else on corn remains constant, this lower yield and production would reduce new crop ending stocks to roughly 2.2 billion bu. This is in line with the 2019/20 ending stocks, and not what would be considered a bullish number. That said, it is well below the initial 3.3 billion bu estimate on ending stocks and would by no means be considered bearish. The possibility that ending stocks may hold steady from one year to the next is the main reason why corn futures have again started to work into a sideways pattern.  

Highlights
* Informa predicts higher plantings on Corn, soy, and wheat next year
* Political tensions build in global markets
* Drought losses in Argentina stabilize
* US dollar volatility builds, impacts commodities
* US economy expected to be pressured through 2023
* Some countries reconsider lock-downs to fight Covid
* China buying to fill reserves
* Interior basis becomes choppy
* US yields mixed, quality also
* Trade starting to position for Sep 30th reports

Corn
* Harvest at 8%
* Crop is 59% mature
* Heavy activity expected this week
* China corn futures reach a record $9.06/bu
* Standability a concern on US crop
 
Soybeans
* Soy harvest 6% complete
* 59% of crop is dropping leaves
* Chinese soy futures hit $18/bu
* Canola at 2 year highs
* Private analysts keep US yield est steady
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 20% planted
* Winter wheat 3% emerged
* Black Sea sales picking up
* US remains high priced in global market
* Ukraine soil moisture lowest in past 10 years
 
Livestock
* Cattle slaughter -4.5% this year
* Boxed beef shows strength
* Hog slaughter slightly above last year
* Hog weights near last year
* Consumer demand is down

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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