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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, August 06, 2020
Trade is again heavily interested in what the weekly export sales volumes will be in today’s report. Last week’s report showed large new crop sales, especially on soybeans. Since then we have not seen much for flash sales on soybeans, so to see a smaller number this week is expected. The concern is that China has been the main buyer of new crop soybeans, with bookings by others being less than average. If we do not see others start making purchases, we could actually see yearly soybean sales fall short of expectations once China resumes its South American buying. We have seen several flash sales on corn though, including last week’s record Chinese purchase. This may give us a larger than anticipated corn booking total. The real question is if we see any additional cancellations to old crop sales like we did a week ago on corn. What trade is most interested in is if these sales are being totally washed out of or simply rolled to new crop delivery. Obviously, the moving to new crop is less bearish for the market. Trade will likely pay more attention to the production estimates that continue to be released ahead of next week’s updated WASDE report. The majority of these are calling for higher yields and production than in July, which is an ongoing source of price pressure. 

Highlights
* Strong tendency for above trend yields given current crop ratings
* Large production forecasts outweigh demand
* China bans camera usage in grain facilities
* US gasoline demand -11% from year ago
* Ethanol production down, stocks still rise
* Brazil planting to being in 3-4 weeks
* Brazil crops estimates continue to rise
* Ukraine grains exports -25% from 2019
* More give up selling taking place
* University of IL predicts poor crop returns to continue
 
Corn
* June exports totaled 198.28 mbu according to Census
* Low values are attracting buyers
* Export inspection percentage of projections equal to last year
* China has 32 mbu unshipped purchases from US
* Brazil exports slow to build
 
Soybeans
* Census June exports at 66 mbu
* Yearly export percentage ahead of year ago 
* China has 106.5 mbu of unshipped US bookings
* US crush down 4 months in a row; still record large
* Canola oil at record high values in China
 
Wheat
* Census June exports at 83.79 mbu
* No Dakota spring harvest advancing
* Reports from ND indicate high test wt and protein
* Demand expected to increase for milling wheat
* Canadian wheat crop est rising
 
Livestock
* June beef exports an 11 year low at 183.3 mil pounds
* June pork exports at 515 mil pounds
* Brazil July beef exports 169,200 mt
* Brazil exported 90,200 mt pork in July
* US retail sales sluggish

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