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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, August 03, 2020
Trade will be anxiously awaiting the crop condition report tonight to see if another increase in ratings takes place. Last week the rating on both corn and soybeans improved 3%. This put both ratings at 72% Good/Excellent which is unusually high for this time of year. In fact, the current crop ratings are tied with those from 1999, 2016, and 2018 to be the 4th highest since 1986. This is the primary reason we are not seeing as much risk premium in the market as expected. Even with ratings being a poor indicator of final yield, these do show crops are not heavily stressed right now. This lack of stress does favor high yields. The only real area of concern at the present time is Western Iowa where soils have turned dry in recent weeks. This is a relatively small area though and can be offset by improved conditions in other regions. Now that the calendar has turned to August, we will start to see more interest in the market on the upcoming harvest. By the end of the month we will start to see early harvest take place in Southern Regions of the United States. These yields tend to set the tone of yield projections until it advances closer to the Corn Belt. Given the quicker progress of this year’s crops, we may actually see some harvest take place in the Southern Corn Belt by the end of the month. 

Highlights
* Record new crop demand is beneficial
* Rainy season slow to start in Brazil
* Drought building in Argentina
* US economy becomes unstable
* Debate to continue on Covid relief package
* Consumers looking for more subsidies
* Chinese imports below 2017 levels
* Russia to starting using Covid vaccine
* Analysts raising Brazil production estimates
* Steady/better crop ratings expected tonight
 
Corn
* China shows more interest
* Private analysts predict 180+ bpa corn yield
* Brazil exports to gain momentum
* Argentine production to decrease 2.4 mmt
* Chinese corn auctions bringing $7.50/bu  
 
Soybeans
* Brazil crop estimate keeps rising
* Delays may happen to planting in Brazil 
* Privates predict 51+ bpa US yield
* Export demand on meal keeps rising
* Weekly sales highest since 2012
 
Wheat
* Late planted spring crop more promising
* Early planted crop suffered from drought/heat
* Russian crop up 6 mmt from last year
* High variability in global production
* Winter wheat harvest pressure to lift 
 
Livestock
* Export demand remains high
* Loadings current with sales
* Wholesale beef values on the rise
* Pork cut outs decline
* Slaughter numbers ahead of last year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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