AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 29, 2019
Much of today’s session will focus on final month end positioning. We will also see reaction to deliveries against the December contracts as today is first notice day. Trade finished weaker on Wednesday as technical support gave way. What is a bigger factor for the commodity market is the lack of investor interest. We are seeing much more interest in the financials and currency market, and that is taking investor interest away from commodities. Traders are growing tired of hashing the same fundamental news over and over and are instead looking for places where they have the opportunity for revenue generation. This is as much of a factor for the strength that we have seen in outside markets as actual economic indicators. Trade will receive the export sales numbers today and they will likely give the market at least some fresh news to work with. Trade will also be monitoring weather to see what path the projected winter storm for this weekend takes. Any fresh news on US trade relations will also impact futures trade. A reminder, trade will end at 12:05 PM CT today. 

* Trade closes at 12:05 PM CT today
* Export sales will be released this morning
* Very thin fresh news
* Deere sees lower profits from trade war
* Chinese economy slows
* Hopes renewed for USMCA passage
* Canadian movement will be hampered for weeks
* Phase 2 Chinese trade deal unlikely
* Ethanol production climbs above year ago

* Brazil exports 1 mmt above estimates
* US harvest delays continue
* Corn losing test weight this year
* High FM in corn from handling
* Sales estimated from 400,000 to 900,000 mt today

* Record crush projected for October 
* Canadian delays support US demand
* Building pressure from Brazil
* Global oilseed demand questioned
* Sales from 600,000 mt to 1.2 mmt today 

* Cash market remains strong
* China sells wheat out of reserve
* Corn/Wheat spread at $1.65/bu
* Global market stronger
* Sales from 300,000 to 600,000 mt

* China getting beef from Australia
* Argentine taxes may limit beef trade
* Technicals support cattle
* Hog supply weighing on complex
* Hog margins remain strong