AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, October 17, 2019
Although it sounds like a broken record, the market continues to re-hash the same fundamental news. The trade developments between the US and China top this list. Until we see a resolution that can be backed with physical changes to the market, we may see limited reaction to daily news. Both sides have said they are working on the text of a deal, but as of yet, no confirmation on the volume of purchases we may see has been made. More emphasis is now being placed on harvest as that activity picks up momentum across the United Sates. So far, yields remain highly variable, which is not surprising. It is interesting to note that many of these are better than expected, which is always a debatable statement. This because we are not sure what was expected and if it was realistic. These reports are mostly on corn, especially in the Western Corn Belt. Yields in the eastern Belt appear to be less favorable and under average. While lower, the numbers we are seeing are in line with USDA expectations. Soybean yields are also highly variable, but less data has been given on that crop. Weather forecasts are favorable for the immediate future and should allow harvest to progress. South American wheat has turned more favorable this week and planters are rolling down there. The US dollar is weaker this morning which is supporting commodities. 

* Trade deal progress
* US/China to meet in November
* US dollar weakens
* Rains slow harvest is US, allow planting in SAM
* Interior basis remains firm
* Trade disappointed with EPA biofuel package
* Ukraine grain exports +39% this year

* Export inspections 98.27 mbu; was 272.5 mbu last year
* Private estimate for 105 mmt Brazil corn
* Mexico keeps buying US corn
* Wheat rally to limit feed use
* USDA to resurvey corn acres due to winter storm

* Inspections at 189.6 mbu; +13 mbu last year
* Estimate for 124 mmt Brazil soybean crop
* No Chinese business yet
* Concerns over crush demand
* Beneficial rains for South America

* Ukraine exports up 30% on the year
* Weaker dollar a benefit
* Technical buying
* Buyers push for high quality wheat
* US needs to remain competitive

* Hopes build for Asian imports
* Cash continues to push cattle futures
* Live cattle +14% from Sep 10th
* South Korea beef imports +8% this year
* Chinese pork supply being cut