AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Corn, soybeans, and wheat have drifted backwards since last Friday big move upwards, but little damage has been done to price outlooks. Fundamentally, nothing has changed significantly since Friday, giving us the indication we are just seeing profit taking rather than selling. This is being done in light trade volume, which also makes futures easier to move. The topic trade keeps going back to is the ongoing debate between the US and China on trade negotiations. Last week it appeared as though a deal was at hand, but now we are not so sure. Both sides continue to talk which is a good sign, but there appear to be two main topics of interest. These are what will be done with current tariffs and intellectual properties. There is also some question on if the United States can supply the volume of commodities it has promised. There is little doubt this will be a topic in the market for weeks to come. More attention will be placed on harvest progress today as activity picks up across the Corn Belt. Of course, the big question as this takes place is yield, and that is as variable as it was expected to be. This is likely a story we will hear for the entire season, and possibly even after combines are put away. 

* Trade deal uncertainty
* Markets approaching overbought
* US harvest does advances last week
* Rains in South America allow planting
* US Corn Belt to see rain next week
* EPA proposes biofuel plan
* US still making soybean export sales

* US corn 73% mature, 92% is average
* Corn harvest 22% complete, 36% is average
* USDA raises Brazil corn export forecast
* Technically overbought
* Winter storm damage still unknown

* Harvest at 26% complete, 49% is average
* Harvest to advance this week
* NOPA crush nearly 10 mbu under estimates
* Planting near normal in Brazil
* More soybeans shipped to Egypt than China last week

* Spring wheat 94% harvested, likely as much as will be done
* Winter wheat 65% planted
* Global market supports US values
* Ukraine raises crop estimate, again
* US export loadings 17% ahead of last year

* Hopes build for Asian imports
* Fund short covering in both hogs and cattle
* Cash cattle separate from futures
* Hog slaughter up 30,000 from year ago