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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Now that the January USDA reports are behind us and trade has had plenty of time to digest the data, the market is looking for its next source of fundamental information. This may come at the end of February when the USDA Ag Outlook forum takes place. This will give us a long-term outlook at US ag economics and possibilities. This data tends to reflect the baseline numbers that have already been released. The forum numbers can also be a precursor to the planting intentions that will be released at the end of March. We have already started to hear talk of more acres on corn and soybeans, with some figures indicating a substantial increase from last year. This also tends to put more emphasis on spring weather and what conditions we may see for planting as these will be a significant impact on seedings. We will also soon start to receive harvest data from South America, mainly Brazil. Analysts are predicting another record soybean crop in Brazil this year and estimates continue to rise. The top end of expectations indicate we could see a soybean crop that would be 11 million metric tons larger than last year. While these numbers are being floated around the market, they seem optimistic given the dry conditions in many parts of the country. Actual crop size may come down to plantings and how much expansion has taken place since last year. Trade will also continue to use demand for price discovery, mainly to see if buyers continue to source needs from the US once the South American harvest does get underway.

Highlights
* Brazilian inflation hits economy
* Fires affect Australian farm outlook
* 2019 natural gas values lowest in 3 years
* Not enough trade focus on product exports
* Market continues to question unharvested acres
* Trade looking forward to March 1st grain stocks
* More attention on prospective plantings
* Expectations for Chinese business may be too high
* Trade attention on spring weather

Corn
* World corn use 23 mmt over production
* Global corn demand continues to rise
* Feed demand underestimated
* NASS to resurvey acres 
* Quality becoming an issue

Soybeans
* Privates continue to raise Brazil crop est
* Privates also raise Brazil export forecast
* NOPA Dec crush data tomorrow
* Record soy crush is expected
* Global oilseed market corrects 

Wheat
* China to raise imports under Phase 1
* Global stocks/use remains adequate
* Favorable Argentine weather
* Winter wheat acres may be higher
* Russia lowers export forecast

Livestock
* Economy impacts demand
* Cattle/hogs held to higher weights
* Chinese demand to build
* Bird flu in Hungry
 

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