AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 08, 2019
Nearly all of today’s trade is likely to focus on the monthly WASDE report which will be released at 11:00 AM CT, 12:00 PM ET. For the most part trade is expecting to see a reduction to ending stocks on corn, soybeans, and wheat. The average estimate for corn is a 167.2 bushel per acre yield and a 13.6 billion bu crop. Soybean yield is estimated at 46.6 bpa and a crop of 3.51 bbu. Ending stocks are pegged at 1.8 billion bu for corn and 432 million bu on soybeans. These compare to the October estimates of 1.93 bbu on corn and 460 mbu for soybeans. Two factors will be key today; acres and demand. We will see the revised acres following the winter storm in the Upper Plains and these may impact production more than yield changes. Demand will be a major factor, especially for corn. Corn exports have been under expectations all year and there are thoughts this number will be reduced by at least 50 mbu today and possibly more. Aside from these numbers we will continue to see interest on US/Chinese trade developments as trade awaits confirmation on recent rumors of a deal being reached. Corn closed below significant support yesterday and today’s data may be key in whether this was a one-day break or a total shift in market direction. 

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* WASDE Report today
* Trade talk developments
* Bulk grain freight vessels lowest cost in 3 months
* Big week for exports on soybeans
* Harvest pressure building
* Propane shortage causing drying concerns
* Cold/dry conditions to continue
* Interior basis firming 

* Average yield estimate 167.2 bpa, crop at 13.6 bbu
* Carryout estimated at 1.8 bbu
* Weekly sales poor at 19.2 mbu
* Harvest to last into winter months
* Ukraine lowers grain export forecast

* Yield est at 46.6 bpa, crop at 3.5 bbu
* Carryout est 432 mbu
* Weekly sales huge at 66.4 mbu
* China buyer of 36 mbu soybeans last week
* Vessels held up in Chinese ports due to tariff uncertainty

* Carryout est at 1.03 bbu
* Light weekly sales at just 13.2 mbu
* Wheat demand is slowing
* Global weather still a concern
* Russia estimates crop +2 mmt from USDA

* ASF to reduce Chinese pork output 20%
* Chinese consumers shifting away from pork
* US pork exports to China up 38% this year
* US pork to China already more than all last year
* China bought 3 mil pounds US beef in September