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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, November 07, 2019
Harvest pressure is starting to build on corn and soybeans. This was the primary source of pressure for the market yesterday and will likely be a factor again today. It is still doubtful that harvest pressure will be as bad as most years given the fact farmers are willing to store more this year and have the space to do so. Harvest pressure is not affecting basis values though, as these values continue to hold steady both at interior locations and export terminals alike. Trade is also growing more skeptic of a quick resolution between the US and China on export issues. Yesterday it was announced that a meeting to sign an interim deal may not take place until December rather than this month as expected. This has some doubting a deal will be made soon at all. China has announced the US is in agreement to roll back tariffs to reach an agreement, although this has not been confirmed. Positioning will again take place today ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Once traders have positions shored up they are exiting the market, generating low volume in thin trade. This has caused wide price swings for not much of a reason at all. 

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Highlights
* WASDE Report on Friday
* China claims US will roll-back tariffs; no confirmation
* Official talks pushed back to December
* Trade waiting for Argentine tax news
* Lower harvested acres expected Friday
* US rail traffic down 8% last week
* US has 43 mil corn, 19 mil soy acres to harvest
* RSI neutral on corn, soy, and wheat 

Corn
* Corn values lowest in past month
* Increased handling needed this year
* Gulf basis starting to firm
* Buyers sourcing corn from Ukraine
* US ethanol production -5.1% from last year

Soybeans
* Harvest pressure building
* Gulf basis improves
* Brazil to allow longer soy production season
* SAM planting advances
* SAM farmers not making large sales

Wheat
* Weaker dollar is supportive
* Australian crop lowered 20% by analysts
* Planting stalled on winter wheat
* 89% of winter wheat intentions seeded
* Global stocks hang over market 

Livestock
* China approves meat from 20 French packers
* US pork sales to China up 91% this year
* Total US pork sales +12% this year
* Pork sales to grow 11% in 2020 
* Cattle futures suffer from profit taking
 

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