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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, November 06, 2019
Trade firmed overnight as light buying surfaced in the market. Very little changed in the way of fundamental news, but rather we have had traders cover short positions that were established yesterday. Much of what we are seeing is positioning ahead of Friday’s updated WASDE report. For the most part, trade is expecting to see slight reductions to ending stocks on corn, soybeans, and wheat. The most interest in this may be on soybeans where reserves could dip below last year. As always, we need to remember demand in this report as well, and for corn that has been less than expected all marketing year. Trade is currently predicting a 1.9 billion bu export total on corn and given recent numbers that may be a stretch. The question is if the USDA is willing to adjust this figure now or wait until the January release when we will have a better idea on our competitor sales. We are starting to see a build in harvest pressure on the futures market as we see advancement take place. Basis is not reflecting this pressure though, as basis values have tightened in many regions of the Corn Belt. Even where basis is weaker it is not expected to drop as much as normal, nor as long. Highlights for today’s trade will be report positioning, global weather, and weekly ethanol production figures. We will also monitor US/China trade talks where some doubt is now being shared over an actual deal despite what government officials from both sides are claiming. 

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Highlights
* WASDE Report on Friday
* Tariffs remain sticking point in trade talks
* Weather favorable for harvest
* US trade deficit narrows in September
* OPEC cuts oil demand forecast
* Basis remains firm
* Sec of Ag Purdue on trade visit to Mexico
* Opposition voiced over possible changes to MFP2 payment 

Corn
* Brazil corn exports 2x US
* SAM corn remains cheaper than US
* US sales need to average 37 mbu/week
* Harvest pressure builds, remains light overall
* 1 bpa yield decrease expected tomorrow

Soybeans
* China remains primary buyer of US soybeans
* Yield little changed in Friday’s report
* Brazil soy exports underestimated
* Global oilseed market sets back
* Chinese crush margins improve

Wheat
* Spring wheat basis firming
* Winter crop looks very good
* US wheat acres may rise
* Russian market slips lower
* French wheat lowest offers in global market 

Livestock
* China lifts ban on Canadian beef/pork
* China to reduce number of slaughterhouses
* US slaughter down to start the week
* Cash values starting to push futures 
* China approves 7 Brazilian packers for import 
 

  SYMBOL IN EVEN SQUARE