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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, October 18, 2019
Trade is mixed overnight with grains under light pressure and soybeans on the positive side. Much of what is expected to take place today is simple week end positioning. There are several factors trade has been watching this week, and these will all again be monitored in today’s session. The main one of these will be developments between the US and China on trade. While both sides claim to want resolution to this situation, there remain several issues yet to be worked through. The primary ones are existing tariffs, the possibility of new tariffs, and technology. We are now starting to see political developments with Hong Kong work into discussions. The US had made statements in support of Hong Kong, and China has threatened retaliation, but given no indication of what this means. There is little doubt these will be discussed as sides ready for face to face talks scheduled for November. Weather will also be a market driver as we try to determine how much harvest can be completed before the next round of rains move into the Corn Belt. This is expected early next week and will impact much of the Eastern Belt. Below normal temperatures are also forecast which will all but end the growing season, with a large portion of crops still not fully mature. We will continue to see the US dollar influence trade as well, as the US dollar is on track for one of the weakest closes to a week in some time. Delayed export sales data will be released this morning. 

Highlights
* USDA to resurvey acres in Upper Plains
* US/China relations
* Brexit updates; impact on financials
* US dollar weakness favors exports
* Western basis starting to soften
* Harvest pressure starting to build
* Planting progresses in So America

Corn
* Continued record exports from So America
* Building harvest pressure
* Stocks to use not concerning, may build
* Ethanol stocks -8.5% from year ago
* Corn/wheat spread reduces wheat feeding

Soybeans
* Harvest slow but advancing
* US soy harvest slowest since 1986
* Weather improves in Brazil, Argentina
* Market waiting for Chinese business
* Midwest losses at 50 mbu from winter storm

Wheat
* Rally does not slow global trade
* Weaker dollar a benefit to demand
* Buyers show more interest in Ukraine/French offers
* Australia lowers crop estimate
* Firms raise EU export forecast

Livestock
* Debate on Chinese demand
* Cattle slaughter up on the week
* Hog slaughter up 53,000 on the year
* Hog cut out values on the rise
* Limited cattle trade so far
 

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