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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, October 09, 2019
Grains were mostly weaker overnight while soybeans continued with yesterday’s rally. Much of what is expected to take place in the market today is final positioning ahead of the monthly WASDE report. For the most part, trade is expecting to see a steady corn production figure and a reduction to soybean production. The market is showing some optimism on trade relations between the US and China this morning as a partial deal is reportedly on the table between the two parties. China has offered to buy an additional 10 million metric tons of soybeans in part of the negotiations. In return, the US must agree to no additional tariffs on Chinese products. It is still unknown if this will be accepted, as President Trump has wavered on his willingness to adhere to a partial deal. Trade is also monitoring geopolitical developments today as tensions build between Turkey and Syria. Weather will be a factor in today’s trade as well as the early winter storm continues to move towards the Upper Plains. It is unknown as to how much damage this may cause to crops, but at least some production loss is likely. This will be more of a factor for corn and soybeans at this stage of the year, but can still be an issue for wheat, especially in Canada. 

Highlights
* Partial trade deal offered
* China agrees to purchase more soybeans if agreed upon
* Blizzard forecast for Upper Plains
* Final positioning for WASDE
* Export loadings positive for soybeans and wheat
* Corn demand is well behind expectations
* Political developments cause market uncertainty 

Corn
* Record Brazil exports
* Russia raises grain production forecast
* Demand is a major issue
* Average estimate raises US production by 65 mbu
* Interior basis firms on light movement

Soybeans
* Average trade guess lowers production by 35 mbu
* Chinese/US trade news
* ASF cutting world oilseed demand
* Brazil soy plantings at 3%; last year was 9.5%
* Brazil soy planting lowest in 6 years

Wheat
* Buyers pass on US wheat due to price
* Canadian harvest slowed
* Russian planting advances; rains move in
* Egypt continues to make imports
* Drought continues in SAM

Livestock
* Fresh buying rallies hogs
* Trade deal likely to include pork
* Pork bellies up $20 in past week
* Japan trade package offers little support
* Global pork market higher
 

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