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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, October 07, 2019
Trade was mixed overnight as positioning intensified ahead of this week’s WASDE report. Estimates going into this report are all over the board, with a story developing for everyone. There is a good possibility of seeing production decreased in this release, but at the same time, we could easily see reductions to demand. This could leave ending stocks little changed from what was released in September. The biggest changes may come from the incorporation of the quarterly stocks data. Trade is also awaiting the trade meeting between the US and China that is scheduled for Thursday and Friday of this week. It appears as though we are already seeing tensions build ahead of this meeting as China has reiterated they are unwilling to move on their demands. The US has taken the same stance. Weather will be a main topic of trade this week as the first major winter storm of the year is being forecast for the upper Midwest. Sharply colder temperatures and snow is expected to move as far south as Iowa, with the main precipitation currently being forecast for the Dakotas. There is little doubt this will impact production in this region, especially snowfall on standing soybeans.  

Highlights
* WASDE report on Thursday
* US/China trade talks on Thursday/Friday
* Winter storm for Upper Plains
* Trade will closely monitor maturity in weekly crop report
* September jobs report neutral to market
* US/Japan trade deal to take effect January 2020
* Private analysts lower world corn, soybean production 

Corn
* Argentine crop 21% planted
* Demand concerns growing
* Last week’s gains most in 4 months
* Feed wheat displacing corn
* August exports less than half of last year

Soybeans
* Brazil increases soy crop estimate
* World soybean demand down from ASF
* Delays to Canadian canola harvest
* China has booked 3.25 mmt US soybeans in last month
* Record August exports at 181.2 mbu

Wheat
* Argentine harvest underway
* Buyers continue to pass on US wheat
* Canadian harvest slowed
* More interest in feed wheat
* August exports a 3-month high

Livestock
* EU pork to US tariffed 25%
* Market hopeful on Chinese trade talks
* Chinese hog losses greater than thought
* August US beef exports at 261.25 million pounds
* August US pork exports at 508.6 million pounds; record high
 

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