AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Corn, soybeans, and wheat moved lower overnight following yesterday’s spike in futures. Yesterday’s buying was brought on by rumors of Chinese interest in our offerings and hopes demand will increase following the October trade meeting between them and the US. Another round of sales to Mexico were also supportive for trade. Advances were pressured overnight by news China has opened the door for Argentine soymeal imports for the first time in history. The fact that US needs new crop sales given the low volume we have had booked so far also limited overnight trade. Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s updated supply and demand numbers. Estimates ahead of this are starting to give us the indication the USDA August data was not that far off actual production possibilities, but this month’s release will contain actual field collected data, which adds a wide array of possibilities. 

* Chinese buying rumors
* Mexico continues to book US commodities
* US Treasury looks for positive year
* WASDE report tomorrow
* China opens door for Argentine soymeal
* US/China trade conflict becoming political topic
* US temps turn above normal, minimal chance of frost

* Army worm continues to spread in China
* Privates looking at larger yields
* New short positions established this week
* Argentine farmers holding corn off market
* Brazil export sales record sized

* Chinese August imports +10% 
* Yearly Chinese soybean imports -9.2%
* New crop carryout expected to decline tomorrow
* ASF found in Philippines
* Philippines is largest buyer of US soymeal

* Australian crop -10% from drought
* US quality concerns
* Wheat/Corn spread favors wheat feeding
* Large global production estimates
* Additional winter wheat acres likely

* ASF in Philippines
* Chinese pork expansion
* Chinese buying rumors
* Cattle rebound from 9 year low
* Large jump in hog slaughter numbers