AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, September 09, 2019
Futures are mostly weaker to start the week. Much of what we will see to start this week’s trade will be positioning ahead of Thursday’s updated supply and demand numbers. Estimates ahead of this release are not as low as some analysts have been expecting, which is keeping futures under pressure. In fact, so far most private yield and production data has been little changed from the USDA August numbers. Trade is also focusing more on demand which has been less than hoped for in recent weeks. The lack of a trade deal with China and mostly favorable weather outlooks are again pressuring trade to start this week. Commodities are starting to lean towards oversold though, which should limit downside movement at this time. 

* WASDE on Thursday
* Private yields close to USDA
* US Weather mostly favorable
* Drought building in South America
* Commodities are oversold
* Market hopes for bio-fuels package this week
* Canada to file WTO complaint against China

* Higher carryout likely on Thursday
* Market focused on acres
* Technically oversold
* US corn cheaper than SAM
* Funds short 140,000 contracts

* Brazil crop 122 mmt, exports 75 mmt
* Exports nearly equal to Chinese needs
* No US sales to China last week 
* Brazil selling soybeans through US harvest
* Funds short 79,000 contracts

* No follow through buying 
* Rains disrupt US harvest
* More quality concerns on US spring crop
* US offers above global market
* Funds short 57,000 contracts in Chicago, 39,000 in KC

* US beef exports +38% last week 
* Japan buys 5,600 mt US beef
* US pork sales -31% last week
* China bought 1,400 mt of US pork
* Domestic demand is slowing