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AgriVisor Morning MArketWatch

 
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
There is a lot of green on the screen early this morning as buyers surface in nearly all contracts. For the grains and soybeans this is coming from delayed plantings and weather forecasts that only indicate scattered activity will take place this week. Technical buy stops were uncovered in the market which is also giving futures some much needed support. The fact that commodities have been over-sold for too long is giving the market support as well. We are still seeing concerns over the trade war with China and what it means for exports, although there are hints a deal is still being worked on. Interesting to see US wheat has reached a level where other wheat producing countries could make imports, mainly into Australia. 

Highlights
• Technical buying surfaces overnight
• Trade war tensions build
• President ear-marks $15 billion in support payments
• Planting falls further behind normal
• 6-10 day forecast warmer; remains wet
• Concerns in financial market help or hinder commodities? Could bring investors, or generate selling pressure from a market withdrawal

Corn
• Planting at 30%, average is 66%, last year was 59%
• Corn is 10% emerged, average is 29%
• Slow emergence to bring late harvest? Quality may be an issue
• Planting activity likely in WCB this week, not much in ECB
• Need technical buying to continue

Soybeans
• 9% planted, 29% is average
• China may wash out of purchases; add 280 million bu to carryout
• Demand concerns prevent rally
• Possible to see alternative buyers show up for needs

Wheat
• Winter wheat 64% Good/Excellent, was only 36% a year ago
• Spring wheat 22% planted, average is 49%
• Spring wheat only 4% emerged, 19% is normal
• World stocks ample
• Bottom buyers surfaced yesterday, need to see follow through activity

Livestock
• Limit losses in hogs brings expanded limits today
• Concerns China will also bypass meat imports
• Cash market strong on pork
• Funds are sellers in cattle
 

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