AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, March 14, 2019
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are starting the day quietly mixed: soybeans 2 lower, corn fractionally lower, with wheat 1-2 higher. ***** 

   # The bigger story today is about the US-China trade negotiations. Pres. Trump has said he is in no hurry to get a trade deal done with China, wanting one that fulfills their original objectives. Intellectual property protection is still a non-negotiable item. Having said that, Trade Chief Lighthizer still seems upbeat on the progress. 
   # USDA has reported export sales will be delayed this morning due to technical issues. The trade looks for: 800,000-1.2 mmt. corn, 1.2-1.9 mmt. soybeans, 400-600,000 wheat, and 50-300,000 tons of soymeal. There is still some chatter about the Chinese corn buying rumor, but the trade wants to see some proof, at least in port cash markets. 
   # Malaysian Palm Oil was down 29 ringgit with the talk that Europe has restricted types of biofuel from palm oil that can be counted towards the EU’s renewable energy goals. 
   # An Allendale survey estimated U.S. farmers would plant 91.475 mln acres of corn, 84.263 mln acres of soybeans, with all U.S. wheat plantings at 47.414 mln acres.
   # New estimates from the Rosario Grain Exchange indicate production in Argentina will reach record highs after the historic drought: soybeans 54 mmt and corn 47.3 mmt.
   # A Reuters story reported Chicago futures have had a rough few weeks; as the headline put it, the trade is worn out regarding the China talk.  The rumors, and subsequent lack of follow-through business have made traders somewhat jaded, and probably more patient. 
   # Ukraine's grain exports have hit 34.3 mmt so far in this season compared with 27.9 mmt this time last yr, according to the ag min; they believe exports could hit 49 mmt, up from 39.4 mmt last yr.
   # AgriMer raised sharply its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2018/19 and said there was scope for more upgrades as competitively priced French wheat draws late-season demand from importers.
   # Weather forecasts remain a part of the mix.  The longer range forecasts have turned warm, dry for much of the Midwest for the end of March, but some forecasters still see this spring being somewhat on the wet side.  At the least the warmer temps are going to bring some flooding problems along the rivers/creeks. 
   # Argentine weather will be generally dry into the weekend, with a few light showers possible, extending through the weekend.  Showers are expected to persist across northern Brazil. 
   # Fund action yesterday; bought 8,000 corn; 5,000 soybeans; but sold 5,000 wheat.  

***** Cattle will start mixed/higher; lean hogs steady/firm. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is steady with choice at $228.24. The impact of the winter storm in the western Plains will be somewhat supportive to the cash trade, although the struggle wholesale market is having moving higher may cap prices in the high $120s. 
   # Wholesale pork is steady at $67.85. The system moving across the Midwest will have less impact on hogs, with production east of problematic areas, but it could still be supportive. Hog futures could have a weaker trend with some disappointment a Chinese deal is not imminent.