AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Wednesday, December 05, 2018
   ***Good Morning***

***** Grains are mixed to slightly lower to start the day; soybeans 2 higher, corn 1 lower, and wheat 4-5 lower. ***** 

***** Equity and financial markets are closed today, along with government offices.  Much of the news media will be focused on Pres. Bush’s funeral, potentially slowing the flow of market moving news. Commodity markets will still be open. *****

   # Expect the normal weekly slate of market reports to be delayed a day because of the funeral; export sales to Fri. and CFTC to Mon.
   # The uncertainty surrounding the Chinese soybean tariffs remains the biggest unknown the grain complex is dealing with.  There has been no specific news from the Chinese, nor any indication of interest in cash markets at ports, but comments hint that could change.  Still, soybean buying could be fore govt. reserves that could bypass the tariff issue. The 5 mmt. number continues to surface, although we’ve seen no formal commitment. 
   # There’s been a few estimates out of recent indicating Chinese soybean imports this year could fall to the mid-80 mmt. level. But one key Chinese analyst is looking for the year’s imports to be 100 mmt. 
   # A Chinese oil importer, Unipec, plans to begin importing U.S. energy by March, believing the threat of tariffs on crude and product imports have declined dramatically. 
   # Egypt is still not able to open letters of credit to unload wheat cargoes.  It’s said up to 945,000 tons are currently delayed. Egypt is said to have asked 16 cargoes bound for the country be delayed into January. Their finances are said to be in good shape, making the situation puzzling.
   # Ukraine has indicated shipments from the Azov Sea have resumed, but there’s still tension between them and Russia. 
   # Ag. Sec. Perdue indicated there will be an announcement on the Market Facilitation Payment later this week.
   # Arg. weather will be dry into the weekend, at which time, thunderstorms will start to develop.  Temps will gradually turn normal, with above normal temps by the weekend. Brazil is expected to have a drier pattern as well, but will still have some shower activity.  It will trend a little warmer. 

***** Cattle should start the day steady; Lean hogs mixed. *****  

   # Wholesale beef is slightly higher with choice at $213.86 on decent volume. The cash trade is quiet as normal to start the week.  Live prices are expected to be near $115 live and $183 dressed to start the week. Showlists were said to be a little larger this week. 
   # Wholesale pork is slightly higher at $70.88. Cash hog prices are expected to be $.50-$1.00 lower.