AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, November 08, 2018
***** Corn futures up 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cents; soybeans up 2 to 3 1/4; Chicago wheat up 1 to 1 1/2.. *****

   # Report day: traders expect to see corn yield revised lower from 180.7 to 180 bushels per acre, soybean yield down from 53.1 to 52.8 bpa. The average guess for corn carryout is 1.773 billion bushels, down from 1.813 bbu on the anticipation of a lowered yield. Analysts see soybean ending stocks rising to 898 million bushels as lowered exports may more than offset a reduced yield. Global carryout estimates are predicted at 158.8 million tons for corn, 110.9 mt for soybeans, and 259.5 mt for wheat.
   # Setting the technical tone for today’s post-report trade are a key low at $3.60 1/2 and a high at $3.78 1/2 for December corn futures. January soybeans would test resistance from $9.06 1/4 on a move up with support possibly provided by $8.44 1/2 on the way down.
   # Snow is in the Midwest forecast tonight. Rain will turn to snow and about an inch of the white stuff could accumulate across parts of northern and central Illinois. A bigger snow event may be on tap for the central Plains this weekend. 
   # Some observers are suggesting that a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will support President Trump’s hawkish stance on trade with the Chinese, since the Democratic party is a friend of labor unions that want to see domestic industries protected. That said, the recent tone of President Trump has been friendlier to China and there is optimism over the potential for progress to come out of the upcoming meeting between him and Chinese President Xi. 
   # There has been increased chatter this week about Chinese corn stocks after that country’s government revised last year’s corn crop higher by 20 percent but then projected a bigger deficit for this year because of the anticipation of better demand. Traders are also talking about adjusted subsidies that will encourage Chinese farmers to switch acres from corn to soybeans.
   # Export sales were not overly impressive this week. New corn commitments were up on the week to 27.6 million bushels, but they fell short of the necessary pace of 37 mbu. Soybean sales were about even with last week at 14.3 mbu and wheat sales were up a little at 24.3 mbu. 
   # The Federal Reserve wraps up its monthly meeting today; no changes to interest rates are expected. The current federal funds rate is 2.25 percent and is expected to rise incrementally to 3.5 percent by 2020. Central bankers are hiking rates in an effort to control inflation and keep the economy from overheating, but raising them too fast could stifle growth.  

***** Livestock futures look to start mixed as bull spreading continues to be a main market feature. *****

   # December cattle futures are holding a small premium over a cash trade that has started to develop at $113-$114 this week. Beef prices are edging lower as buyers turn their attention to turkey and ham in the lead up to Thanksgiving. Better demand may return as restaurants and retailers gear up to serve more beef around the December holidays.  
   # Hog futures found slight interest from technical buyers on Wednesday after the December contract dropped the $3 limit on Tuesday. Pork export sales were down a little on the week but came in ahead of the four-week average. Better export demand may yet develop as Asia suffers from lost supply due to African swine fever.