AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, August 08, 2018
***** Corn up 3/4 to 1 1/2 cents at the break; soybeans higher by 3 1/4 to 4 1/4; Chicago wheat fractionally firmer. ***** 

   # Falling crop condition ratings helped soybeans on a turnaround Tuesday, but market is mostly quiet as traders wait to have a look at Friday’s crop report.  
   # The U.S. soy complex starts out with support from higher finishes for bean and palm oil markets in Asia.  Soybeans for January delivery on China’s Dalian futures exchange settled higher by 2.9 percent while Malaysian palm oil prices were better by one point.  
   # Analysts expect better export forecasts to help lower the U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks estimates for old crop.  Corn carryout is anticipated near 2.021 billion bushels, soybeans 460 mbu.  Rising yield estimates should lead to bigger new-crop projections.  The average trade guesses for new-crop ending stocks are 1.636 bbu corn and 638 mbu soybeans. 
   # Chinese soybean imports from January through July were down 3.7 percent of the year as a result of the monthly July total being off by 21 percent.  China is buying less as a result of new U.S. tariffs, with officials working to substitute away from soy proteins.  Analysts at Oil World are the latest to say that they expect China will still have to import U.S. soybeans this year, maybe up to 15 million tons, or more than 40 percent of last year’s total.  
   # The White House issued its latest list of Chinese goods subject to 25 percent tariffs.  Taxes will start to be collected on August 23rd and will cover another $16 billion worth of goods.  
   # France’s agriculture ministry made another round of cuts to its estimates for corn and wheat production.  Drought was an issue most of the season.  USDA currently projects a 4 percent drop for European wheat production this year, but a more drastic reduction will come on Friday.
   # An inch of rain was dropped across a wide swath of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois last night.  Heavy totals were also received in parts of southern Illinois.  This week’s forecast is generally less warm and not as wet as was expected last week.  The 6-10 day outlook shows favorable weather through the Corn Belt as the Jet Stream shifts back north.    

***** October live cattle start with a test of support from the 200-day moving average; hogs still trending lower, but also remain technically oversold. ***** 

   # Hogs continue to face pressure from weak cash and wholesale market performance.  Direct hogs in the Western Corn Belt dropped another $3.43 on Tuesday.  Rising pork production and worries about export demand have turned speculators into heavy sellers of the space.           
   # Cattle futures had generated additional positive technical momentum on a strong Friday rally, but this week are weighed on by ideas that the cash trade will turn back lower.  The expectation is that cash cattle will give up the $2 gains that last week put them trading near $114.